Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
