Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
